SLOweather

Late Saturday afternoon, we spied this mountainside rescue in progress across Prefumo Canyon from SLOweather…

Friday seemed to have a flight theme at SLOweather.

First, this squadron of planes flew by:

Some butterflies…

They were attracted to Purple Sage in bloom…

And then a brace of big military helicopters…

About 8:35 PM PST Monday, a small hail cell passed over SLOweather. The hail storm lasted just over a minute and produced pea sized hail. When it was over, it was like flipping a switch, from intense hail to nothing in seconds.

We’re currently under a Wind Advisory and High Wind Watch. Winds have been out of the SE for quite some time now, and increasing in velocity the last few hours. At 8AM, winds at SLOweather are 20 gusting to 24 mph. According to PG&E’s we can expect winds to continue to increase today, to gale force, and rains of 2-4 inches.

Here’s a excerpt from his Sunday AM forecast:

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITION:

     A 993-millibar storm has developed about 250 miles northwest
     of San Luis Obispo County this morning. The associated warm
     front will give scattered rain showers this morning.

     On the heels of the warm front will be a vigorous cold front.
     As this cold front makes its way down the California coast,
     it will produce strong-to-gale-force (25-to-38 mph) southeasterly
     winds this morning, increasing to gale-force (32-to-46 mph)
     levels with rain developing this afternoon. These winds will
     reach their peak with gust over 50+ mph this evening through
     tonight as this cold front passes over us.

     Along with the peak southerly winds will be heavy rain for several
     hours. This storm will move towards our area and will continue to
     give rain and strong-to-gale-force 25-to-38 mph southwesterly
     winds on Monday as an upper-level trough passes over our area. 

     This system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain along
     the coastline, with higher amounts in the coastal mountains as
     well as heavy snow in the Sierra. In fact, by Monday night, up
     to 3 feet of new snow could easily occur at Tahoe with higher
     totals at higher elevations.

     Scattered rain showers will continue on Tuesday through Wednesday
     morning, becoming dry by Wednesday afternoon.

     Another low pressure system will move southward out of the Gulf
     of Alaska on Thursday, but will be too far out to sea to produce
     any rain. This system will gave gentle southerly winds and mild
     temperatures, which is good news for the Tour of California.

     At this time, there is a chance of another weather system giving
     rain to our area next weekend.

It looks as if we might finally be entering into a wetter pattern. I especially like the comment about possibly continuing through the end of February…

From John Lindsey, the PG&E meteorologist’s discussion this morning:

—

This morning’s charts and models maintain the storm track
southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska for an extended period.

This condition will result in a series of storms reaching
San Luis Obispo County beginning on Friday and possibly
continuing through the end of February. At this time, each
storm appears to be more intense than the one before it and
could result in coastal erosion and possible flooding very
much like late March or early April 1958.

Friday’s storm is expected to produce strong to gale force
(25-38 mph) west to northwesterly winds and moderate rain.

Another storm will follow late Saturday with gale force
(32-46 mph) southerly winds with heavy rain developing late
Saturday into Sunday morning. These two systems could produce
total rainfall in excess of 1-2 inches over the three-day
span with heavy snow in the Sierra Mountains.

Another storm is forecast to reach our area late Tuesday into
next Wednesday with gale force (32-46 mph) southerly winds and
heavy rain.

Unsettled weather is expected to continue for the rest of next
week.

—

And the 4PM NWS discussion:

DRY MOST AREAS THU UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW. NEXT SYSTEM SCHEDULED
FOR FRI. 12Z RUNS WERE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH IT, HOWEVER THE 18Z
NAM HAS BOOSTED THAT UP A NOTCH OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN THE
FORECAST ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR NOW AS THIS IS THE FIRST RUN TO
SHOW THIS HEAVIER SOLUTION. EITHER WAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY AND PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING FRIDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE
FIRST OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE TWO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARRIVES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH AND CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETS UP AND IT WILL TAKE LONGER THAN USUAL TO MOVE THIS STORM
THROUGH OUR AREA. SO THE COMBINATION OF A LONGER DURATION OF RAIN
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF HYDROLOGIC
CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BURN AREAS. PW`S ARE A
LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE, STILL UNDER AN INCH, BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE CONCERNED.
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE FROM 1-3 INCHES
COAST/VALLEYS AND 2-5 FOOTHILLS/MTNS, PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE USUAL FAVORED AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION. SURPRISINGLY,
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE COLD AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR LOCAL MOUNTAINS EVEN BELOW
RESORT LEVELS.

.LONG TERM (SUN NT-WED)…PRECIP SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY
EVENING BUT SHOWERY PATTERN LINGERS INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. THEN A LITTLE BREAK THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES. MODELS DIVERGE A LITTLE ON THIS SECOND SYSTEM WITH
THE ECMWF NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THE GFS. BUT BOTH MODELS BRING A
STRONG CHANCE OF RAIN IN ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. GOOD WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUMP UP THE SNOW LEVELS MUCH HIGHER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN. AND IF THE GFS IS CORRECT RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THIS
SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE SAT NT/SUN STORM. PRECIP WILL
START TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A MUCH
DRIER DAY ON WED WHILE THE GFS IS STILL HANGING ONTO A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE WET PATTERN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SEEMS
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

We couldn’t see this morning’s annular lunar eclipse due to the clouds and precipitation.  The moon set at 6:43 AM and rose this evening at 6:10 PST.

This is an aptly named full moon, the Snow Moon. We saw snow in the north county and along Cuesta Ridge, and Highways 166 and were closed for a while due to the snow.

From Nick