SLOweather

This also seems to be a banner year for coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) acorns…

Although not so much for the honeysuckle (Lonicera hispidula)…

These images are available in full resolution in the SLOweather gallery here.

Friday morning I took a little trip up along Cuesta Ridge from 101 west to Tassajera Peak. It was cool up there, about 55 F.

(You can see full size versions of these photos in the SLOweather gallery here.)

On the way up, I saw this maple that was already changing colors.

This seems to be a very good year for acorns. These were on a leather oak (Quercus durata) along TV tower road.

Bishop manzanita berries (Arctostapylos obispoensis)…

Clematis seed heads (possibly Clematis lasiantha)…

As often as I’ve been up there, until Friday, I didn’t realize that there was tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) up there…

Meteorologist, SLOweather contributor, and all-around good guy John Lindsey has been canned by PG&E.

The story is all over the Trib and Dave Congaton.

Dave has PG&E contact information in his blog at the link above, if you’d like to add your voice protesting this cost-cutting move by PG&E.

September “Harvest Moon” rising over the KKJL “Fabulous Fourteen Hundred” transmitter…

Wednesday, at 12:46PM PDT, the 2007 Harvest Moon will become full. It will rise in SLO Wednesday at 6:49 PM PDT and set Thursday morning at 6:42 AM PDT.

The Harvest Moon is the full moon closest to the Autumnal Equinox. Most of the time it falls in September, but occasionally it falls in October. It’s called the Harvest Moon because its light allowed farmers to harvest their fields later into the night. Also, due to its proximity to the Autumnal Equinox, the moonrises are closer together each night on each side of the full moon, allowing even more harvest illumination.

The September Full Moon is also known as the Full Corn, Barley, Nut, or Mulberry Moon

Tomorrow morning at 2:52 AM PDT (if I did my math right) is the Autumnal Equinox, the beginning of Autumn or Fall here in the northern hemisphere. The “days” (amount of daylight) have been getting shorter since the Summer Solstice (first day of summer) back in June. Sunday the length of daylight and night are equal, and then we start having shorter amounts of daylight and longer nights. The days and nights are also getting cooler, time to build fires in the fireplace and snuggle in bed.

Last weekend we did a run up Prefumo Canyon over the top and down into See Canyon to Gopher Glen for some apples. A few sycamores are already changing color, and, out checking the oaks today, the acorns look like they will be ripe in 2-3 weeks. There are reports from some areas that this is a bumper year for acorns around California.

The poison oak is changing color, too…

And the California Fuchsia is in bloom.

And the clouds today had a lot of interesting texture…

From the Oxnard NWS Office:

510 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

…A VERY RARE AND COLD SEPTEMBER STORM ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY..

A VERY COLD STORM THAT ORIGINATED IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HAS
TRAVELED OVER LAND…AND NOT OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS…WAS
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON THIS MORNING. THIS STORM WILL MOVE DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN…THUNDERSTORMS..
AND EVEN SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW…TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THIS STORM WILL BE PRECEDED BY A DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY
CREATE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING…ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE WILL BE 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
AND THURSDAY.

BY LATE THURSDAY…THE STORM WILL MOST LIKELY BE JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL FOR 12 TO 18
HOURS. DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT…THE STORM WILL
MOSTLY AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

CURRENTLY MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SHOW FRIDAY TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY…ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY AS THE STORM SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ON FRIDAY…SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN ALL AREAS..
AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS…AND
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BULK OF
THE STORM WILL AFFECT LOS ANGELES COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS STORM…ESPECIALLY ON THE
SOUTH SLOPES OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY…THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN VENTURA COUNTY…AND
PORTIONS OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAINS MAY
CAUSE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND BELOW RECENT BURN AREAS…AND
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY
DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT IS ONLY SEPTEMBER.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALMOST UNPRECEDENTED IN TERMS OF COLD AND SNOW
LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO BETWEEN 5500 AND 6000 FEET LATER FRIDAY. IN ADDITION MANY
LOCATIONS MAY WELL SET RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN SEPTEMBER.

EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE IS STILL IN
QUESTION…AND MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT VARIANCES IN
PRECIPITATION TIME AND AMOUNTS. RIGHT NOW…THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR
RAINFALL IS FOR A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN MOST AREAS…BUT THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN FACING COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES COULD RECEIVE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY…THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON STORM.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION
THIS WEEK TO ENSURE YOU HAVE THE LATEST FORECAST AND WARNING
INFORMATION.

$$

Special Weather Statement from the Oxnard NWS, 6AM PDT Tuesday, 18 Sept 2006

—
…A VERY RARE AND COLD SEPTEMBER STORM ON TAP FOR LATER THIS WEEK..

COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A VERY UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEK.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER TODAY..
THEN TREK DOWN THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST…ARRIVING IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY EVENING…AND IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
THURSDAY.

THIS STORM WILL BE PRECEDED BY A DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY
CREATE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE BOTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS…ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY…WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING LIKELY ON
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY…THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY..
BRINING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS
THE AREA…BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY…SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION..
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET BY LATE THURSDAY…THEN COULD
FALL TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT…ALMOST UNPRECEDENTED FOR SEPTEMBER IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
MAY REMAIN IN THE 60S…MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY THAN SEPTEMBER…AND
NEAR RECORD LOW VALUES FOR SEPTEMBER.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM..
THE THREAT OF RAIN IN ANY SIX HOUR PERIOD IN THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
GENERALLY 50 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER…THE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING
THE 36 HOUR PERIOD FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IS
QUITE HIGH. IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THESE TYPES STORMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY AND REAL CONFIDENCE WILL NOT COME UNTIL THE STORM
MANIFESTS ITSELF ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE IS STILL IN
QUESTION…AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT
CAN ATTAIN FROM THE PACIFIC. IF IT TRACKS A BIT FARTHER OFF THE
COAST…IT WOULD LIKELY GATHER MORE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE..
INCREASING POTENTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS. IF IT TRACKS FARTHER
INLAND…IT WILL REMAIN STARVED FOR MOISTURE…RESULTING
IN A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM DOES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
UNDER THE RIGHT CIRCUMSTANCES.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY…WITH A DECREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY TAKE MANY TRICKS AND TURNS AS IT MIGRATES
SOUTHWARD. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING MANY
FORECAST UPDATES BETWEEN NOW AND THE STORMS ARRIVAL. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION THIS WEEK TO
ENSURE YOU HAVE THE LATEST FORECAST AND WARNING INFORMATION.

During this morning’s SLOweather Wxsim forecast run, I saw a few mentions of rain toward the end of the week that didn’t show up in the final forecast.

This afternoon’s Diablo Canyon forecast from John Lindsey hinted about the same possibility…
—
09/16/07 Weather Forecast “Rain showers late this week”

(Early week stuff edited out…)

The charts and models have been consistent in developing a cold upper-level
low a short distance to the west of Diablo Canyon on Thursday. Rain chances
depend on the exact location of this system, and at the moment the low is
depicted a little too far offshore for any heavy rain.

This early season, unusually strong low pressure system is forecast to drop from
north to south on Thursday with increasing clouds, scattered rain showers
and cooler temperatures through out our area. There is also a good shot for the
first dusting of snow across the Sierra by Thursday as the low has plenty of
cold air associated with it and snow levels could dip as low as 6000′.

So with that being said, scattered rain showers and increasing southerly winds
are expected to develop along the Diablo Canyon coastline on Thursday morning
and should continue through early Saturday as this system moves down the California
coastline. Clearing is forecast for Sunday.

This evening, I paid more attention to my Wxsim forecast run. I limit the published forecast to 4 days (which is through next Thursday), but Wxsim itself forecasts out 5 days.

Here’s today’s afternoon run:

Thursday
FORECAST RUN:

DATE TIME TEMP WIND R.HUM CTM TVL THL S.AL T.CHNG/HR WEATHER
Sep 20 12:56 A 55.3 2 92 78 54 63 -54 -0.2 P.-M.CLDY HEAVY DEW
Sep 20 1:56 A 55.2 1 93 78 54 63 -51 -0.0 M.CLOUDY CHNC. SHWR
Sep 20 2:56 A 55.2 0 93 78 54 63 -44 -0.1 M.CLOUDY CHNC. SHWR
Sep 20 3:56 A 55.0 0 93 79 53 63 -35 -0.2 P.-M.CLDY CHNC. SHWR
Sep 20 4:56 A 54.7 0 93 79 53 63 -24 -0.3 P.-M.CLDY CHNC. SHWR
Sep 20 5:56 A 54.3 1 93 79 53 62 -12 -0.5 P.CLOUDY LIGHT FOG
SURFACE WIND NOW FROM SSE
SEA BREEZE BASE = 2.0 MPH FROM SSE
Sep 20 6:56 A 53.3 3 95 80 51 63 0 -0.6 FAIR LIGHT FOG
Sep 20 7:56 A 56.3 3 89 80 55 64 12 +5.4 CLEAR HEAVY DEW
Sep 20 8:56 A 64.4 3 72 81 64 68 24 +8.4 CLEAR
Sep 20 9:56 A 69.1 4 62 81 69 70 36 +3.7 CLEAR
Showers very unlikely
Sep 20 10:56 A 72.5 5 56 81 72 72 46 +2.9 CLEAR
Showers unlikely, but could contain lightning if they occur
Sep 20 11:56 A 74.6 6 51 81 75 74 53 +2.0 CLEAR
Scattered showers and thundershowers possible
Sep 20 12:56 P 76.2 7 47 81 77 76 56 +1.3 CLEAR
Scattered thunderstorms likely, some heavy or possibly severe
Sep 20 1:56 P 77.2 8 45 80 78 77 53 +0.7 CLEAR
Sep 20 2:56 P 77.6 9 44 80 78 77 46 +0.1 SUNNY
Scattered thunderstorms likely, some severe
Sep 20 3:56 P 77.2 9 44 79 78 77 36 -0.9 SUNNY
Numerous thunderstorms likely, some severe
Sep 20 4:56 P 75.6 9 45 79 76 76 25 -2.0 M.SUNNY
Scattered thunderstorms likely, some heavy or possibly severe
Sep 20 5:56 P 72.3 7 51 79 72 74 13 -4.3 FAIR-P.C.
Sep 20 6:56 P 67.3 4 61 79 66 73 1 -5.5 P.CLOUDY
Scattered showers and thundershowers possible
Sep 20 7:56 P 62.9 3 71 79 61 70 -11 -3.6 P.-M.CLDY
Sep 20 8:56 P 60.4 2 78 80 59 69 -23 -1.8 P.-M.CLDY
Showers unlikely, but could contain lightning if they occur
SURFACE WIND NOW FROM N
SEA BREEZE BASE = 2.0 MPH FROM N
Sep 20 9:56 P 59.9 2 79 78 59 66 -34 -1.4 P.-M.CLDY
Showers unlikely
Sep 20 10:56 P 59.0 2 82 79 58 66 -44 -0.8 P.-M.CLDY
Sep 20 11:56 P 57.9 2 85 79 57 65 -51 -1.2 P.CLOUDY LIGHT DEW
Showers very unlikely
————————————————————————-
Friday

Sep 21 12:56 A 56.7 2 87 80 55 64 -54 -1.1 FAIR-P.C. MOD. DEW
Sep 21 1:56 A 55.6 2 89 80 54 63 -52 -1.1 CLEAR HEAVY DEW
No shower or thunderstorm activity expected
Sep 21 2:56 A 54.4 3 90 80 53 63 -45 -1.0 CLEAR HEAVY DEW
Sep 21 3:56 A 53.5 3 91 80 52 62 -35 -0.9 CLEAR HEAVY DEW
Sep 21 4:56 A 52.7 3 91 80 51 62 -24 -0.7 CLEAR LIGHT FOG
Sep 21 5:56 A 52.0 3 92 80 50 61 -12 -0.6 CLR-FAIR LIGHT FOG
SURFACE WIND NOW FROM ESE
SEA BREEZE BASE = 3.5 MPH FROM ESE
Sep 21 6:56 A 51.0 5 94 82 49 62 0 -0.5 FAIR MOD. FOG
Sep 21 7:56 A 53.8 5 89 82 52 63 12 +4.6 FAIR-P.C. HEAVY DEW
Showers very unlikely
Sep 21 8:56 A 60.9 4 75 82 60 66 24 +7.8 FAIR-P.C.
Showers unlikely
Sep 21 9:56 A 67.6 3 62 82 67 69 35 +5.7 P.CLOUDY
Scattered showers and thundershowers possible
Sep 21 10:56 A 72.0 2 54 82 72 72 45 +3.1 P.CLOUDY
Sep 21 11:56 A 74.3 3 49 81 75 74 52 +1.9 P.CLOUDY
Scattered thunderstorms likely, some heavy or possibly severe
Sep 21 12:56 P 75.6 3 46 80 76 75 55 +1.0 P.-M.CLDY
Sep 21 1:56 P 76.1 3 45 80 77 76 53 +0.2 P.-M.CLDY
Sep 21 2:56 P 76.0 3 44 79 76 75 46 -0.5 M.CLOUDY
Numerous thunderstorms likely, some heavy or possibly severe
Sep 21 3:56 P 72.0 3 53 77 73 71 36 -5.1 M.C.-CLDY DRIZZLE
Numerous thunderstorms likely, some severe
—-

This far out, I’m not yet buying in to the whole “Numerous thunderstorms” thing, but it will be interesting to see how the week develops. Stay tuned to the SLOweather forecast, as well as others.

The Butler 2 Fire is burning out of control in San Bernardino County. It started Friday, is 0% contained, and at is at 18,000 acres.

Depending on where you measure the “end” of it, the smoke plume is 250-300 miles long.