SLOweather

Hoo wee! We broke 100 degrees F in the Irish Hills late this morning. That may be the first time this year.

According to the NWS, the temps should break tomorrow. I hope so.

Is there a PC term for Indian Summer? Or is it already PC?

The low temperature here overnight did not even break 60, and before dawn was up to 66. It looks like our autumn hot spell is here. High to 89 in SLO today, and in the 80s until Saturday, according to the NWS.

Maybe it’ll bake that spider out of the camera enclosure.

I ran back to the site and opened the iris, so the cam is working again.

In cleaning out the spider that had taken up residence in front of the camera lens, I apparently closed the iris down, making a black image. I’ll get back up there as soon as possible to fix it.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-211300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE.. TODAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. RAIN
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS LOCAL
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND WASHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN.. WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT..

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
410 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-201100-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-CUYAMA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
410 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

…SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY..

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL DRAW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THIS MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM…THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE THREAT OF
RAIN WILL FIRST BEGIN ACROSS LOS ANGELES COUNTY…THEN SPREAD
NORTH-WESTWARD INTO VENTURA…SANTA BARBARA…AND SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTIES.

SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN…GUSTY WINDS..
AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE…ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM…RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE…BUT SCATTERED ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO
MANY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT…MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS DUE TO LONG-STANDING OIL
DEPOSITS ON THE ROADWAYS…AS WELL AS LOCAL PONDING OF WATER DUE TO
CLOGGED DRAINAGE AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

The NWS and the rest of the weather sites are bullish on the possibility of rain overnight tonight and early Tuesday. As of Monday afternoon, the NWS pegs it at 30% over their forecast area, while The Weather Channel and Intellicast say showers early becoming more widely scattered overnight.

And then Accupop is showing 40%-50% from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday, with a peak chance of 62% from 7-10 AM Tuesday.

Stay tuned… See who’s right.

Here’s an interesting site. I’m not quite sure what to make of their precipitation forecast product.

“Our long-range weather forecasts are not statistics of historical weather data but a dynamic weather forecasting system with no erosion of accuracy over the long term.”

” All DRYDAY® forecasts are created atleast (sic) 18 months in advance
and have the same potential accuracy.”

Today shows a 40% “risk” of rain, whatever that means. That’s certainly not borne out by any other forecast.

Maybe they get their forecasts from the Old Farmer’s Almanac.

The Climate Prediction Center maps say that we have equal chances for normal precipitation and temperatures for the next couple of months. The maps are here.

Rather than post John Lindsey’s excellent Diablo Canyon Power Plant forecast to the blog every day, I made a link to it in the links section of the blog page, over on the right. My appreciation to John and PG&E, and to Tenera for the forecast in a linkable form.

There’s also a link to it now on the SLOweather home page.